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Championship probabilities from 50,000 Monte Carlo simulationsUpdated after Dutch GP
Kimi Antonelli is favored to win the 2026 World Drivers' Championship at 85.9%, ahead of Lewis Hamilton (8.6%). In the constructors' standings, Mercedes leads the title odds at 85.1%.
Kimi Antonelli is the favorite to win the 2026 World Drivers' Championship at 85.9%, based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season. Lewis Hamilton is next at 8.6%.
Mercedes leads the constructors' championship odds at 85.1%, combining both drivers' projected points across the remaining races.
Each remaining race is simulated 50,000 times using current-season race pace, qualifying performance, and track-specific affinities. The model seeds from actual championship standings, so only rounds that haven't happened yet are simulated.
After every race weekend, once official results are in — the model re-seeds from the updated standings so probabilities always reflect the real championship state.