Season Projections
Championship probabilities from 50,000 Monte Carlo simulationsUpdated after Bahrain GP in Malaysia
Kimi Antonelli is favored to win the 2026 World Drivers' Championship at 99.7%, ahead of George Russell (0.3%). In the constructors' standings, Mercedes leads the title odds at 99.9%.
Who is favored to win the 2026 F1 championship?
Kimi Antonelli is the favorite to win the 2026 World Drivers' Championship at 99.7%, based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the remaining season. George Russell is next at 0.3%.
Which team is favored to win the 2026 constructors' championship?
Mercedes leads the constructors' championship odds at 99.9%, combining both drivers' projected points across the remaining races.
How are these championship odds calculated?
Each remaining race is simulated 50,000 times using current-season race pace, qualifying performance, and track-specific affinities. The model seeds from actual championship standings, so only rounds that haven't happened yet are simulated.
How often are the projections updated?
After every race weekend, once official results are in: the model re-seeds from the updated standings so probabilities always reflect the real championship state.